NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 251909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
309 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Partly cloudy and generally dry overnight with some patchy fog.
Another weak disturbance will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, a few storms may
contain gusty winds. Thursday is looking dry with high pressure
in control. Then, a chance of showers and thunderstorms returns
Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above average through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Breezy, westerly well mixed flow continues this evening, with
surface winds mainly 8-15 mph. Sct to bkn cumulus will persist
until sunset, then expect clearing. Cannot rule out an isolated
shower into the early evening across the western Catskills. A
weak ridge of high pressure at the surface then moves in
overnight allowing winds to diminish and keeping skies mainly
clear. Surface winds are light and variable for a time after
midnight, then begin to turn southwesterly toward daybreak. Low
temperatures will cool off better tonight (55-60) and will
approach the dew point in some of the valley locations;
therefore added in some patchy river valley fog during the
predawn hours across the Susquehanna and Delaware basins.

Wednesday: Starting off partly to mostly sunny in the morning
across the region. This will allow temperatures to quickly warm
during the morning hours. Clouds gradually increase from NW to
SE in the afternoon as a weak wave approaches. This disturbance
should initiate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across central NY (from about 2-8 PM) then move into NE PA from
about 6-11 PM. SPC does have much of our CWA in a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms, which could produce gusty winds
Wednesday afternoon/evening as mixed layer instability rises.
Forecast soundings show an inverted V look and have ample DCAPE
(around 1000 J/Kg) to produce those isolated gusty winds. Some
model difference as the NAM is showing much higher amounts of
instability compared to the latest GFS. Will mention the chance
for a stronger storm with gusty winds in the HWO/EHWO for now.
Warmer and still humid with highs well into the 80s. Southwest
winds increase a bit, mostly 6-12 mph through the day.

Wednesday night: A few lingering showers across NE PA and
Sullivan county in the evening, then dry overnight as another
weak high moves overhead. Partly cloudy and cannot rule out some
patchy valley fog again. Overnight lows hold in the lower to mid
60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure to our south will likely have enough influence on
our weather pattern for a precipitation free day. However,
clouds will likely increase some later in the day given the
approach of a cold front heading southeast toward the region
from Canada. Southwesterly flow on the backside of the high will
result in another warm day. With 925 mb temperatures modeled
around 20C, most locations should get into the low 80`s. Warm
southwesterly flow will keep lows in the low 60`s for most
locations Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday through Sunday: An unsettled weekend is still expected across
our region. However, some of the timing details involve some
uncertainty. Operational models are timing a shortwave passage
over the region Friday afternoon and evening and then another
one on Sunday. The first shortwave late Friday should coincide
with the passage of a cold front. A decent amount of instability
of 500-1,500 J/KG CAPE is modeled at this point with 20-30
knots of 0-6 KM bulk shear. So thunderstorms are possible with
the first shortwave, some of which may be on the strong side if
the previously listed parameters pan out. Gusty winds would be
the main concern. PW values look to climb to about 1.5 inches
resulting in some heavy downpours. However, storm motions look
progressive enough to limit any widespread flash flood threat.

Temperatures Friday should warm slightly over blended guidance
given the modeled boundary layer temperatures with highs
reaching the low and mid 80`s outside any storms. Clouds and
precipitation should keep lows in the 60`s for most locations.
High temperatures will trend cooler each day through Sunday
behind the cold front.


With the next shortwave on Sunday, the main upper level low is east
of the region. Enough lingering moisture should be in place
though for the formation of a few showers. Saturday may not be
totally dry either with the ECMWF having another shortwave that
results in some additional scattered showers and storms. A
slower frontal passage Friday night would also result in rain
chances extending into Saturday.


Sunday night through Tuesday: High pressure looks to build into the
region early next week for a mainly dry period. A few ensemble
members do have some rain chances but the bulk of them show high
pressure resulting in a dry period. Temperatures should trend a
little cooler with lows in the 50`s to near 60 and highs in the
70`s to low 80`s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR conditions expected all areas this evening with just sct
mid level cumulus around. Should be mainly clear after sunset,
with perhaps a few high clouds.

Some uncertainty whether KELM and/or KAVP could get brief fog
near sunrise; added in a tempo MVFR restrictions mainly 8-11z
Wednesday. Showers should hold off until after the taf period on
Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon and evening...Passing disturbance in
afternoon- evening may yield scattered gusty thunderstorms
possible brief restrictions.

Late Wednesday night through midday Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday afternoon through Sunday...Chance for showers and
thunderstorms and restrictions as a wave passes.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MJM

NWS BGM Office Area Weather Forecast Discussion