NWS Forecast Discussion

997
FXUS61 KBGM 221926
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
326 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold frontal boundary will continue moving southeast through
Pennsylvania tonight taking with it any chances for rain. High
pressure builds into the area late this week and remains in
place through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Late this afternoon and tonight: A cold front will slowly move
southward through Pennsylvania this evening. Lingering moisture
and lift along the frontal boundary has been enough to produce
an area of showers and thunderstorms. The coverage was increased
through the early evening to account for current trends. 0-6 KM
Bulk Shear values would suggest the potential for some strong
to severe storms but mixed layer CAPE is rather limited now
under 500 J/KG. Still a thunderstorm or two with gusty winds is
not entirely out of the question. The ECMWF for the last few
model runs has been suggesting an antifrontal period of showers
later tonight. This has little model support currently so this
forecast is more in line with the RGEM and NAM nest which show
a clearing trend throughout the evening. Lows should fall into
the 50`s for most locations tonight. Some patchy valley fog can
not be ruled out as well overnight.

Friday and Friday night: High Pressure will gradually build
southeast into the region resulting in generally mostly sunny
skies and light winds. This will lead to prime radiational
cooling Friday night. Patchy valley fog will be a potential
concern Friday night as well. Highs should reach 70 with
overnight lows in the 40`s and 50`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Much of the weekend will be dry and on the cooler side of the late
August temperature spectrum with a very dry air mass in place and a
surface high rolling east across srn Quebec into nrn New England.
The one exception to this mainly dry forecast will be on Sunday
afternoon when a cutoff upper low drops in from the NW and becomes
situated near NYC. There may be enough low level moisture from the
Atlantic getting entrained into the system to trigger a few rain
showers in the Catskills and Poconos Sunday afternoon, but other
than that, weather conditions should remain quiet. Highs on Saturday
and Sunday will top out in the lower to mid 70s. Overnight lows Sat
night will fall into the upper 40s and lower to mid 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The dry air will re-establish itself over the region Sunday night
into Monday with upper level ridging and a narrow surface high
suppressing any large scale upward vertical motion. The pattern
begins to shift back to an active one Monday night through Wednesday
as a slow-moving cold front and upper s/w lift e/newd through the
Ohio Valley into the Northeast. There are some timing differences
among the various model solutions, so will keep with middle of the
road chance pops pushing slowly through the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. Will also see a gradual but weak warming trend through
the week as well with highs into the upper 70s and lower 80s by
Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR expected throughout the TAF period. The one exception
is potential for a thunderstorm or two at KAVP late this
afternoon and early evening. Data is still divergent on the
exact time so a TEMPO group continues to be larger than ideal
trying to pin down the timing of any thunderstorm. Winds today
will be around 10 knots from the northwest with a higher gust
or two possible.

VFR everywhere tonight and Friday morning with the exception of
morning IFR fog likely at KELM. Winds generally from the
northwest at or under 10 knots.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...VFR, except late night/early
morning fog possible at KELM.

Monday night and Tuesday... VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MWG

NWS BGM Office Area Weather Forecast Discussion