NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 231905
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
305 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are expected into this
evening ahead of an advancing cold front. Rain tapers off after
midnight with high pressure building into the region Wednesday
into Thursday before another area of low pressure comes
northeast into the region on Friday with additional chances for
rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
3 pm update...
Main concern in the near term remains focused on the potential for
showers and even a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
ahead of an advancing cold front, with the main threat being brief
heavy downpours and gusty winds.

High pressure that brought the beautiful sunny skies and pleasant
conditions to much of the region this morning has shifted off to the
east this afternoon. An area of low pressure over the eastern Great
Lakes, with an upper low back to the nw, will move into far srn
Quebec tonight as a trailing cold front drags its way through NY and
PA this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms have
developed in wrn PA and wrn NY early this afternoon and are
starting to move into the forecast area as of 3 pm. Temperatures
have risen into the lower 70s over much of the area, with enough
heating in the boundary layer to produce a slight amt of
instability. A 60kt upper jet and embedded s/w rounding the
trough across wrn PA is providing the necessary dynamics to
lift the air mass within about 1 inch PWATs to produce widely
scattered rain showers. The available instability, 40 kt of deep
layer shear and fairly steep mid level lapse rates will prove
sufficient for a few weak thunderstorms as well into the
evening hours. The main threat will be brief heavy
downpours...with some isolated areas seeing around a quarter to
half inch in a very short time. Cannot rule out a strong gust
of wind mixing down to the surface either.

The cold front and associated showers will taper off after midnight
tonight with most areas clear of rain by sunrise Wednesday. An
unseasonably cold punch of air on the back side of the system
will push in late tonight and through the day Wednesday. Cloud
cover tonight and enough mixing in the low levels will keep
temperatures in the 40s. However, on Wednesday temperatures will
have a very hard time getting above 50 where the clouds stick
around from Syracuse to Delhi...and into the lower to mid 60s to
the south and west. A tight surface pressure gradient will
develop on Wednesday and trigger sustained NW winds around 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible through the afternoon.

Winds weaken Wednesday night with high pressure building in from the
west. Cloud cover will scatter out and temperatures will cool
into the mid to upper 30s with light and variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 pm update...
High pressure over the area Thursday morning gets quickly pushed
east as low pressure in the Ohio Valley moves over CNY Friday
morning. A broad upper level trough moves into the area behind the
low late Friday. Rain should hold off during the day Thursday but
will move in during the evening. A deep southerly flow will bring
rain and moisture all the way from the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall
amounts expected to be around an inch Thursday night through Friday.
Left pops as likely but should increase with models coming more in
line.

Temperatures are above or near normal this period. Highs
in the mid and upper 60s Thursday fall to around 60 Friday with
clouds and rain. Thursday night lows mostly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 pm update...
Friday night some lingering showers in the east as the upper level
trough moves through. Saturday some moisture wraps all the way
around the stacked storm in eastern Canada and into the Mohawk
Valley and Tug.  Cooler temperatures with lows in the 30s and highs
in the 50s. Maybe cold enough for some snow to mix with the rain
late Friday night .

The rest of the period will be active as the flow becomes zonal and
the northern stream stays across the Great Lakes. Models not
agreeing well on the timing of the specific storms. Periods of
showers with the best chances on Sunday and Tuesday. Again cold
enough in CNY at the higher terrain and Oneida County for snow to
mix in late at night and first thing in the morning.

Wide range of temperatures withe the warmest temperatures in the
south. Highs mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions under high pressure will be replaced later this
afternoon by cold front with showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms into the evening hours. MVFR restrictions are
likely from showers with brief periods of IFR vsbys in heavier
rain showers around KSYR and KRME before 03Z. MVFR/fuel
alternate req ceilings will likely linger through much of night
even as showers move out of the area. MVFR cigs expected to
persist at KRME and KSYR...and potentially at KITH as well with
nw winds off Cayuga Lake through most of the morning hours.
Conditions improve to VFR for KELM, KBGM and KAVP after 14Z. Winds
will strengthen out of the southwest this afternoon before
shifting to west/northwest after 21-23Z today with some gusts
around 25 knots this afternoon through tonight evening. Winds
pick up even more after 15Z Wed out of the nw...gusts 25 to 30
kt possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon... MVFR stratus for KSYR and KRME improving
through the afternoon.

Wednesday night through Thursday... VFR expected.

Thursday night into Friday... Restrictions possible with
showers.

Friday night and Saturday... Predominately VFR.

Sunday...Vsby and ceiling restrictions possible in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...BJT/MWG

NWS BGM Office Area Weather Forecast Discussion