NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 201600
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1100 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent light lake effect snow showers will continue
southeast of Lake Ontario through this afternoon. Additional
accumulations will be light. High pressure builds across NY and
PA this weekend with mild temperatures and fair weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
11 am update...
Lake Effect Snow Warning has been cancelled early due to the
rapid deterioration of the lake band that continues to drop
south across the Finger Lakes and portions of central NY. Will
likely see light snow showers persist through the rest of the
day across the region as the cold Arctic air pours in from the
north. Any additional accumulation will be around an inch or
less. No other changes have been made to the forecast at this
point.

650 AM update...

The lake effect snow warning is cancelled for Northern Oneida
County.

330 AM update...

A lake effect snow warning remains in effect for the northern
fringe of our forecast area.

Cold air moving over relatively warm lake waters will create a
large degree of lake-induced CAPE through late Thursday morning.
Snow bands will continue to track across the warning area and
produce near whiteout conditions in squalls.

Snow will push through Northern Onondaga County and along the
Oneida/Madison County border through this morning. Additional
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected.

As winds switch to a more northerly component, the bands will
shift into the Finger Lakes region and Southern Onondaga County
by late morning. The bands will become cellular by midday as
afternoon thermals increase. A few cells will track toward the
NY/PA border.

Partially clearing skies and light winds will produce cold
temperatures overnight with most areas in the single digits.
Though the existence of mid-level clouds prevents this from
being a classic radiational cooling event, it`s still likely
temperatures will drop below conservative guidance values. We
trended 2-3 degrees below NBM.

Building high pressure will yield a quiet day on Friday with
temperatures moderating into the lower 30s over the Twin Tiers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM Update...
Quiet weekend is foreseen with moderating temperatures.

The center of high pressure will move from lower
Mississippi/Ohio Valleys Friday night, across the southern
Appalachians Saturday, and then offshore of the Carolinas on
Sunday. However, its influence will extend well north to our
area, with dry weather through the weekend. We can also expect
temperatures starting fairly close to climatology, but trending
higher as the southwesterly return flow of the departing high
becomes more involved.

Clear sky and radiational cooling will get temperatures down
in the mid teens to lower 20s Friday night, though it would not
be surprising to see colder pockets as typically occurs on clear
nights. A weak disturbance riding over the high may allow some
clouds to skim parts of Central NY Saturday, during otherwise
benign weather as temperatures reach 30s to lower 40s. Upper
teens-mid 20s Saturday night, will then be followed by upper
30s-upper 40s Sunday courtesy of warm air advection and a good
deal of sunshine. Lower elevations of Northeast PA could even
get around 50 degrees. Still quiet Sunday night, with lows of
20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500 AM Update...
Mild southwesterly flow dominates early next week, ahead of an
amplifying trough that is projected to drop into the western
Great Lakes by Wednesday. This could lead to colder weather
advancing into our region beyond that timeframe, but until then
above average temperatures are anticipated with precipitation
chances mainly in the form of rain as weak waves run through
the southwest flow. Most areas Monday and Tuesday will reach
well into the 40s for highs; perhaps even lower 50s for some
lower elevations of Northeast PA.

As temperatures drop beyond midweek, precipitation type will
become more complicated, and there will be prospects for deeper
low pressure systems within our region.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours with the
exception of terminals affected by lake effect snow bands. KSYR
and KRME will see temporary IFR/MVFR restrictions this morning.

Lake effect snow showers will diminish this afternoon. Winds
will be westerly at 8 to 12 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR.

Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

Monday...Restrictions in rain and/or snow showers possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/DJP
NEAR TERM...BJT/DJP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJP

NWS BGM Office Area Weather Forecast Discussion