NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 220428
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1228 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will reside over the region into early next week,
bringing mostly sunny skies and moderating temperatures. The
next chance for rain showers will arrive late Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Surface high pressure will be anchored across the northeast
during the period providing mainly clear nights and a sunny day
later today. Both the pre dawn hours and tonight will be good
radiational cooling setups with mainly clear skies and light
winds. Overnight lows will range from the middle 20s to lower
30s. Highs on Sunday will range from the middle 50s to around
60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
350 pm Update...

High pressure remains firmly in control of our weather through
the day on Monday. Expect ample sunshine and near to above
average temperatures. Highs should reach well into the 60s for
most locations Monday afternoon. High clouds gradually increase
from south to north across the region Monday night, as a closed
upper low pressure system slowly approaches. Overnight lows will
not be quite as chilly...only dipping down into the upper 30s
and lower 40s.

The upper level ridge begins to shift eastward over New England
during the day on Tuesday. Clouds will continue to increase,
lower and thicken through the day...again from south to north
across our CWA. The lower and mid level flow turns southerly as
moisture continues to increase through the day. Latest guidance
is hedging slightly faster with the onset of precipitation from
this system. Introduced a slight chance of showers/sprinkles
late Tuesday afternoon across the western and southern portion
of our forecast area. Any shower activity looks very light prior
to sunset. High temperatures will continue to be more spring-
like...reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s in most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
350 PM Update...

The previously mentioned low pressure system will track up the east
coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models are in very good
agreement that our area will see periods of rain or showers
Tuesday night, Wednesday and even into Wednesday night as this
weather system slowly tracks through northeastward. Rainfall
amounts will average 0.50 - 1.00 inches during this 24-36 hour
period. With daytime temperatures in the 50s and overnight lows
in the 40s, precipitation type will be all rain, areawide. At
this time rainfall amounts are not looking heavy enough to cause
any widespread hydrological issues.

The upper level trough lingers over the area during the day on
Thursday...bringing additional chances for mainly light rain
showers, especially in our Central NY counties. Despite the
clouds and showers around temperatures look to remain
seasonable...in the 50s to around 60.


Latest guidance is trying to converge on a brief dry period
Thursday night into Friday, as our forecast areas is between
weather systems. Lower PoPs into the slight chance category
during this time period.

Guidance diverges toward the end of the week and into next
weekend. The GFS is much faster, bringing a potent low pressure
system into our area Friday night. Meanwhile, the Canadian and
ECMWF hold this system off to our west until later on Saturday.
For now, to account for this timing differences...used a blend
of the latest available guidance which gives chance PoPs for
rain showers over the area Friday night into Saturday. Overall,
it is looking unsettled and cooler for the end of the week and
especially next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Over the next 24 hours the terminals will experience VFR
conditions and mainly clear skies.

Light winds overnight will increase out of the northwest at 8
to 10 knots on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Restrictions possible in rain
showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/MWG/RRM
SHORT TERM...BJT/MJM
LONG TERM...MJM/MWG
AVIATION...DJP

NWS BGM Office Area Weather Forecast Discussion